TV3 Poll August 2009

August 16, 2009

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: estimated 08 April to 13 April 2009

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

  • National 58.1% (+2.1%)
  • Labour 29.2% (-0.8%)
  • Green 7.5% (+1.4%)
  • ACT 1.4% (-0.7%)
  • Maori 1.2% (-1.7%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.1%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 1.0% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 72
  • Labour 36
  • Green 9
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 126

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 72 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 75/126 – 11 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 = 46/126 -18 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 51.5% (+0.4%)
  • Clark 8.0% (-3.5%)
  • Goff 6.5% (-2.6%)

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