Roy Morgan poll January 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 876 of whom 819 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.5%

Dates: early January to 17 January 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 47.0% (-2.0%)
• Labour 27.5% (-1.0%)
• Green 14.0% (+1.0%)
• NZ First 6.5% (+0.5%)
• Maori 3.0% (+1.5%)
• United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
• ACT 0.5% (nc)
• Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
• Conservative 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 33
• Green 17
• ACT 1
• Maori 4
• United Future 1
• NZ First8
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 33 + Greens 17 = 50/121 – 11 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 8 + Maori 4 = 12/121

On this poll the Maori Party would hold the balance of power as both CR and CL would need them to form a Government. The CL would need NZ First also.

Country Direction

• Right 59.5% (nc)
• Wrong 28.0% (-3.0)
• Can’t Say 12.5% (+3.0%)