Roy Morgan poll September 2015

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 876 of whom 806 have a party preference

Undecideds: 8.0%

Dates: early August to 13 September 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 44.5% (-6.0%)
• Labour 31.0% (+4.0%)
• Green 15.0% (+4.0%)
• NZ First 5.5% (-2.5%)
• Maori 1.5% (nc)
• United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
• ACT 0.5% (nc)
• Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
• Conservative 1.0% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

• National 54
• Labour 37
• Green 18
• ACT 1
• Maori 2
• United Future 1
• NZ First 7
• Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 54 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 56/121 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 37 + Greens 18 = 55/121 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 7 + Maori 2 = 12/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

• Right 58.0% (+4.0%)
• Wrong 29.5% (-4.5%)
• Can’t Say 12.5% (+0.5%)