One News Colmar Brunton poll September 2015

September 13, 2015

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,002 of whom 849 have a party preference

Undecideds: 11%

Dates: 29 August to 02 September 2015

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (nc)
  • Labour 32.0% (nc)
  • Green 12.0% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 7.0% (nc)
  • Maori 1.2% (+0.8%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.1% (-0.3%)
  • Mana 0.2% (-0.3%)
  • Conservative 0.1% (+0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 39
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/122 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 14 = 53/122 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 + Maori 1 = 10/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 40.0% (nc)
  • Andrew Little 10.0% (+2.0%)
  • Winston Peters 6.0% (-1.0%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 3.0% (+1.0%)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 33% (-3%)
  • Worse 45% (+4%)
  • Same 22% (-2%)

NZ Flag

  • Change flag 28% (+2%)
  • Keep flag 66% (+2%)
  • Unsure 6% (-3%)

Foreign Investment in Sensitive Land

  • Continue current approval process 37%
  • Ban all foreign investment in sensitive land 54%

Private Prisons

  • Should should be privately run 21%
  • All should be run by Corrections 69%

TPP

  • Should sign 24%
  • Not sign 44%
  • Don’t know 32%

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