One News Colmar Brunton poll February 2015

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 840 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 10%

Dates: 14 February to 18 February 2015

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 49.0% (+3.9%)
• Labour 31.0% (+5.8%
• Green 10.0% (-2.5%)
• ACT 0.3% (-0.3%)
• Maori 1.5% (-0.1%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• Mana 0.4% (-1.4%)
• NZ First 6.0% (-2.1%)
• Conservative 1.5% (-2.9%)

Projected Seats

• National 60
• Labour 39
• Green 12
• ACT 1
• Maori 2
• United Future 1
• NZ First 7
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/122 – the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 39 + Greens 12 = 51/122 – 11 fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 2 + NZ First 7 = 9/122

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

• John Key 41% (-2.0%)
• Andrew Little 12% (nc from Cunliffe)
• Winston Peters 7% (+2.0%)

Islamic State

• 48% support sending New Zealand troops to help train Iraqi security forces to fight ISIS
• 42% opposed

Alcohol Sponsorship and Advertising

• 47% support a ban on alcohol sponsorship and advertising
• 45% opposed