One News Colmar Brunton 17 September 2014

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 838 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 10%

Dates: 12 September to 17 September 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 45.1% (-0.9%)
• Labour 25.2% (+0.2%
• Green 12.5% (-1.5%)
• ACT 0.6% (-0.6%)
• Maori 1.6% (+0.8%)
• United Future 0.0% (-0.2%)
• Mana/Internet 1.8% (+0.4%)
• NZ First 8.1% (+1.1%)
• Conservative 4.4% (+0.4%)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 32
• Green 16
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana/Internet 2
• NZ First 10
• Conservative 0
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/122 – three fewer than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 32 + Greens 16 + Mana/Internet 2 = 50/122 – 12 fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 10 = 13/122

On this poll the centre parties would hold the balance of power and National could form a centre-right Government with either the Maori Party or NZ First Party while Labour could only form a centre-left Government with both centre parties.

Preferred PM

• John Key 43% (-3.0%)
• David Cunliffe 12% (-2.0%)
• Winston Peters 5% (-1.0%)