Fairfax Ipsos poll 17 September 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1001 respondents

Undecideds:

Dates: 02 September to 17 September 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

• National 47.7% (-5.1%)
• Labour 26.1% (+3.7%)
• Green 12.0% (-1.0%)
• NZ First 6.6% (+2.2%)
• Maori 0.9% (-0.1%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.3% (-0.4%)
• Mana 0.9% (-0.5%)
• Conservative 4.5% (+0.9%)

Projected Seats

• National 61
• Labour 34
• Green 15
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 8
• Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/124 – the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 34 + Greens 15 + Mana 2 = 51/124 – 12 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 8 = 11/124

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

• John Key 53.6% (-3.9%)
• David Cunliffe 20.0% (+2.5%)