Fairfax Ipsos poll 11 September 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1000 respondents of whom 873 have a party preference

Undecideds:

Dates: 04 September to 11 September 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

• National 52.8% (-1.4%)
• Labour 22.4% (-1.9%)
• Green 13.0% (+0.1%)
• NZ First 4.4% (+0.8%)
• Maori 1.0% (+0.7%)
• United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
• ACT 0.7% (+0.5%)
• Mana 1.4% (+0.1%)
• Conservative 3.6% (+1.2%)

Projected Seats

• National 70
• Labour 29
• Green 17
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 2
• NZ First 0
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 70 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 72/123 – 10 more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 29 + Greens 17 + Mana 2 = 48/123 – 14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/123

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

• John Key 57.5% (-0.1%)
• David Cunliffe 17.5% (nc)

Housing Policies

• 49% prefer National’s home start grants
• 38% prefer Labour’s Kiwibuild

Next National Leader

• Bill English 33%
• Steven Joyce 22%
• Paula Bennett 11%
• Simon Bridges 9%

Affordability of Spending Promises

• National +42% (62% affordable, 20% unaffordable)
• Labour -5%
• NZ First -3%
• Greens -26%
• Conservatives -9%
• Internet Mana -32%

Auckland Transport

• City Rail Link 40% most important
• 2nd harbour crossing 32%
• Dominion Road upgrade 15%
• Puhoi to Wellsford 12%

Auckland Growth

• 55% support new suburbs
• 38% build high rises