Roy Morgan poll late July 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 818 of whom 765 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 14 July to 27 July 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 46.0% (-5.0%)
• Labour 30.0% (+6.5%)
• Green 12.0% (-3.0%)
• NZ First 5.0% (-1.0%)
• Maori 1.5% (+0.5%)
• United Future 0.5% (nc)
• ACT 0.5% (nc)
• Mana/Internet 2.5% (+1.0%)
• Conservative 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

• National 56
• Labour 36
• Green 15
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana/Internet 3
• NZ First 6
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/121 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 36 + Greens 15 + Mana/Internet 3 = 54/121 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 6 + Maori 3 = 9/121

On this poll National (plus ACT/UFNZ) could govern with either the Maori Party or NZ First while Labour (plus Greens/Mana) could only govern if both NZ First and the Maori Party supported them.

Country Direction

• Right 60.0% (-5.5%)
• Wrong 25.0% (+2.0)
• Can’t Say 15.0% (+3.5%)