Fairfax Ipsos poll July 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos Poll Method: Random Phone Poll Size: 1024 respondents of whom 823 have a party preference Undecideds: 15.3% Dates: Client: Fairfax Report: Stuff Party Support

• National 54.8% (-1.7%)
• Labour 24.9% (+1.7%)
• Green 12.4% (+0.5%)
• NZ First 2.6% (-0.6%)
• Maori 0.9% (+0.2%)
• United Future 0.2% (+0.2%)
• ACT 0.1% (-0.6%)
• Mana 1.2% (nc)
• Conservative 1.3% (+0.4%)

Projected Seats

• National 69
• Labour 32
• Green 16
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 2
• NZ First 0
• Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats. Coalition Options

• CR – National 69 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 71/124 – eight more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 32 + Greens 16 + Mana 2 = 50/124 – thirteen fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/124

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed. Preferred PM

• John Key 58.2% (+4.9%)
• David Cunliffe 14.2% (+2.3%)
• Winston Peters
• Russel Norman

Time for a Change of Government

• Yes 41.1% (-2.7%)
• No 51.3% (+3.3%)

Leadership Changes

• Labour would gain 15.2% and lose 1.7% for a net gain of 13.6% if David Cunliffe is not leader
• National would gain 12.4% and lose 5.3% for a net gain of 7.1% if John Key is not leader

NZ First Coalition preferences

• Expect National 32.1%
• Expect Labour 29.2%
• Neither 20.2%
• Don’t Know 18.9%

Transport

• 30% say focus should be public transport
• 24% say roads
• 40% say both
• 57% say Government doing enough to ease traffic jams