Fairfax Ipsos poll June 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1017 respondents of whom 777 have a party preference

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 14 to 17 June 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

• National 56.6% (+8.9%)
• Labour 23.2% (-6.3%)
• Green 11.9% (-0.9%)
• NZ First 3.2% (-0.5%)
• Maori 0.7% (-1.2%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.7% (-0.2%)
• Mana 1.2% (+0.7%)
• Conservative 0.9% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

• National 72
• Labour 30
• Green 15
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 2
• NZ First 0
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 72 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 74/123 – twelve more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 30 + Greens 15 + Mana 2 = 47/123 – fifteen fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/122

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

• John Key 53.3% (+4.7%)
• David Cunliffe 11.9% (-1.5%)
• Winston Peters 2.5% (-0.9%)
• Russel Norman 2.8% (+0.8%)

Country Direction

• Right 63.1% (-0.5%)
• Wrong 35.4% (-0.2%)

Time for a Change of Government

• Yes 43.8% (-2.5%)
• No 48.0% (-0.1%)

Government Performance Out of 10

• 0 – 2: 9.4% (+0.4%)
• 3 – 7: 66.0% (-1.0%)
• 8 – 10: 24.0% (nc)

Most Important Issues

• Education 22%
• Economy 21%
• Health 19%
• Unemployment 14%
• Housing Affordability 12%
• Immigration 4%

MMP Electorate seat threshold

• 82% against “coat tailing”
• 14% in favour

Expectation of tax cuts

• 30% expect tax cuts
• 61% do not

John Key

• 22% say they would vote National if John Key stood down
• 36% say they might depending on who replaced him
• 39% would not