Roy Morgan poll mid February 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 859 of whom 825 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 03 February to 16 February 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 48.0% (+1.0%)
• Labour 30.0% (-3.0%)
• Green 12.0% (+1.0%)
• NZ First 5.5% (+1.0%)
• Maori 0.5% (-1.0%)
• United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
• ACT 1.0% (+1.0%)
• Mana 1.0% (nc)
• Conservative 1.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 58
• Labour 36
• Green 15
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 7
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/122 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 36 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 52/123 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 7/123

On this poll a centre-right Government could be formed with the Maori Party or NZ First. A centre-left Government would need both the Maori Party and NZ First.

Country Direction

• Right 63.5% (nc)
• Wrong 23.5% (-1.0%)
• Can’t Say 13.0% (+1.0%)