One News Colmar Brunton poll October 2013

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,014 respondents of whom 820 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 11%

Dates: 19 to 23 October 2013

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 45.0% (-2.0%)
• Labour 34.0% (nc)
• Green 13.0% (+1.0%)
• ACT 0.5% (+0.3%)
• Maori 1.4% (+0.1%)
• United Future 0.1% (-0.2%)
• Mana 0.3% (+0.3%)
• NZ First 3.9% (+0.3%)
• Conservative 1.6% (+0.8%)

Projected Seats

• National 58
• Labour 43
• Green 16
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Conservative 0
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/123 – two fewer than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 43 + Greens 16 + Mana 1= 60/123 – two fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/123

The Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 43% (+1.0%)
• David Cunliffe 12% (nc)
• Winston Peters 4% (nc)