Fairfax Ipsos poll October 2013

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,030 of whom 815 have a party preference

Undecideds: 21.9%

Dates: 19 October 2013 to 23 October 2013

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

• National 50.2% (+1.9%)
• Labour 33.6% (+2.0%)
• Green 10.7% (-1.6%)
• NZ First 2.3% (-0.5%)
• Maori 0.7% (-0.3%)
• United Future 0.1% (nc)
• ACT 0.1% (-0.1%)
• Mana 0.7% (+0.2%)
• Conservative 0.7% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

• National 63
• Labour 43
• Green 12
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 63 + ACT1 + United Future 1 = 65/124 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 42 + Greens 11 + Mana 1 = 56/124 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/125

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Country Direction

• Right 59.5% (+1.2%)
• Wrong 40.5% (-1.2%)

Government Rating

• 5.6/10 (+0.4)

Time for a change

• Yes 50.1% (+1.5%)
• No 43.1% (+0.4%)

Leader Attributes:

• Strong and effective PM – Key +25.2%
• Trust on economy – Key +20.6%
• Stable & united Government Key +19.5%
• Create fair society – Cunliffe +3.3%