Fairfax Ipsos poll December 2012

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,062 of whom 955 have a party preference

Undecideds: 9.0%

Dates: 28 November 2012 to 03 December 2012

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

• National 46.2% (+1.3%)
• Labour 34.4% (+1.8%)
• Green 10.5% (-1.4%)
• NZ First 3.8% (+0.2%)
• Maori 1.4% (-1.3%)
• United Future 0.2% (+0.1%)
• ACT 0.0% (-0.6%)
• Mana 0.6% (-0.6%)
• Conservative 1.4% (+0.7%)

Projected Seats

• National 59
• Labour 44
• Green 14
• ACT 0
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats, except for National winning Epsom.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 59 + United Future 1 = 60/122 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 44 + Greens 14 + Mana 1 = 59/122 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

• Right 48.9% (-0.9%)
• Wrong 51.1% (+0.9%)