3 News Reid Research Poll November 2012

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 24 to 30 November 2012

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 47.0% (-1.8%)
• Labour 34.6% (+1.6%)
• Green 12.9% (+2.3%)
• ACT 0.2% (+0.1%)
• Maori 1.0%  (-0.5%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• Mana 0.1% (-0.9%)
• NZ First 2.0% (-1.2%)
• Conservative 1.0% (-1.0%)

Projected Seats

• National 59
• Labour 43
• Green 16
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/124 – two fewer than minimum 63 needed to govern
• CL – Labour 43 + Greens 16 + Mana 1 = 60/122 – three fewer than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• Key 37.4% (-3.6%)
• Shearer 12.6% (+4.1%)
• Peters 5.0% (nc)
• Norman 2.2% (-0.2%)

Leadership Performance Ratings

• John Key – 51.9% (-3.1%) well and 29.4% (-1.0%) poor = +22.5% net well (-2.1%)
• David Shearer – 31.6% (-1.9%) well and 34.4% (+2.9%) poor = -2.8% net well (-4.1%)