Roy Morgan poll early May 2012

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 894, of whom 849 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 30 April 2012 to 13 May 2012

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

• National 44.5% (-2.5%)
• Labour 30.0% (+1.5%)
• Green 15.0% (nc)
• NZ First 5.5% (+0.5%)
• Maori 1.0% (-0.5%)
• United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
• ACT 0.0% (-0.5%)
• Mana 0.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 55
• Labour 37
• Green 18
• ACT 0
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 7
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats, except for National winning Epsom.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 55 + United Future 1 = 56/122 – 6 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 37 + Greens 18 + NZ First 7 + Mana 1 = 63/121 – 1 more than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

• Right 51.0% (-4.0%)
• Wrong 35.5% (+2.5%)
• Can’t Say 13.5% (-0.5%)