3 News Reid Research Poll April 2012

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: assumed 14 to 19 April 2012

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 49.8% (+2.3%)
• Labour 29.4% (nc)
• Green 14.1% (+0.8%)
• ACT 0.2% (nc)
• Maori 1.6%  (+0.3%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• Mana 0.9% (-0.4%)
• NZ First 2.3% (-2.7%)
• Conservative 1.1% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

• National 62
• Labour 37
• Green 18
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/123 – two more than minimum 62 needed to govern
• CL – Labour 37 + Greens 18 + Mana 1 = 56/122 -six less than minimum 62 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• Key 44.2% (-1.6%)
• Shearer 10.4% (+0.3%)

Leadership Approval

• Key – 59.9% (-0.6%) doing well vs 24.0% (-2.0%) doing poorly – net rating is +35.9% (-2.6%)
• Shearer  – 32.5% (-2.6%) doing well vs 26.2% (+9.0%) doing poorly – net positive is +6.3% (-11.6%)