Roy Morgan late October 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 933, of whom 872 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.5%

Dates: 10 October to 23 October 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

• National 53.5% (-2.0%)
• Labour 29.5% (+1.5%)
• Green 9.5% (nc)
• ACT 1.0% (-0.5%)
• Maori 2.0% (nc)
• United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
• NZ First 2.5% (+0.5%)
• Mana 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

• National 66
• Labour 37
• Green 12
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 66 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 68/121 – 7 more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 37 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 50/122 – 11 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

• Right 61.0% (-1.0%)
• Wrong 24.5% (nc)
• Can’t Say 14.5% (+1.0%)