Roy Morgan early November 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 911, of whom 847 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7.0%

Dates: 24 October to 06 November 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

• National 53.0% (-0.5%)
• Labour 26.0% (-3.5%)
• Green 12.0% (+2.5%)
• ACT 1.0% (nc)
• Maori 2.0% (nc)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• NZ First 4.5% (+2.0%)
• Mana 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 67
• Labour 33
• Green 15
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 67 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 69/121 – 8 more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 33 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 49/122 – 12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

• Right 58.5% (-2.5%)
• Wrong 27.5% (+3.0%)
• Can’t Say 14.0% (-0.5%)