Fairfax Research International Poll 23 November 2011

Polling Company: Research International

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000, of whom 838 are decided

Undeicdeds: 15.6%

Dates: 17 to 21 November 2011

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

• National 54.0% (+1.5%)
• Labour 26.0% (+0.1%)
• Green 12.0% (-0.6%)
• ACT 0.7% (-0.3%)
• Maori 1.1% (-0.4%)
• United Future 0.1% (-0.2%)
• Mana 1.1% (+0.4%)
• NZ First 4.0% (+1.2%)

Projected Seats

• National 69
• Labour 33
• Green 15
• ACT 1
• Maori 4
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 69 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 71/124 – 8 more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 33 + Greens 15 + Mana 1= 49/124 -14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• John Key 51.5% (-0.7%)
• Phil Goff 12.5% (-1.0%)
• Winston Peters 3.5% (-0.4%)

Preferred Government

• Prefer one party to govern alone 39.7%
• Prefer coalition 54.1%
• No preference 3%