3 News Reid Research Poll 24 Nov 2011

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds: 12%

Dates: assumed 19 November to 23 November 2011

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 50.8% (+0.6%)
• Labour 26.0% (-1.4%)
• Green 13.4% (+0.4%)
• ACT 1.0% (+0.3%)
• Maori 1.5%  (+0.2%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• Mana 1.1% (+0.1%)
• NZ First 3.1% (-0.4%)
• Conservative 1.8% (+0.7%)

Projected Seats

• National 65
• Labour 34
• Green 17
• ACT 1
• Maori 4
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, Mana, ACT and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/123 – 5 more than minimum 62 needed to govern
• CL – Labour 34 + Greens 17 + Mana 1 = 52/123 -10 less than minimum 62 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• Key 49.0% (nc)
• Goff 12.0% (+2.0%)
• Peters 4.0% (nc)