3 News Reid Research Poll 13 November 2011

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: assumed 3 November to 10 November 2011

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 53.3% (+1.0%)
• Labour 29.9% (-0.3%)
• Green 10.2% (+0.8%)
• ACT 0.7% (-0.8%)
• Maori 1.4%  (nc)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• Mana 1.0% (+0.1%)
• NZ First 2.4% (nc)

Projected Seats

• National 66
• Labour 37
• Green 13
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, Mana, ACT and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 66 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 68/122 – 6 more than minimum 62 needed to govern
• CL – Labour 37 + Greens 13 + Mana 1 = 51/122 -11 less than minimum 62 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• Key 50.0% (-2.7%)
• Goff 12.4% (+2.6%)

Leadership Approval

• Key – 68.9% (-2.2%) doing well vs 17.2% (-0.7%) doing poorly – net positive is 51.7% (-1.5%)
• Goff  – 34.6% (+6.2%) doing well vs 44.8% (-9.4%) doing poorly – net positive is -10.2% (+15.6%)