Roy Morgan early October 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 847, of whom 788 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7%

Dates: 26 September to 09 October 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

• National 55.5% (+4.5%)
• Labour 28.0% (-2.5%)
• Green 9.5% (-2.0%)
• ACT 1.5% (nc)
• Maori 2.0% (-0.5%)
• United Future 0.5% (nc)
• NZ First 2.0% (+1.0%)
• Mana 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

• National 68
• Labour 34
• Green 12
• ACT 2
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 68 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 71/121 – 10 more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 34 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 47/122 – 14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

• Right 62.0% (+0.5%)
• Wrong 24.5% (nc)
• Can’t Say 13.5% (-0.5%)