3 News Reid Research Poll September 2011

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: assumed 22 September to 28 September 2011

Client: 3 News

Report:

Party Support

• National 57.4% (+3.4%)
• Labour 26.6% (-2.2%)
• Green 9.8% (+0.5%)
• ACT 1.6% (-0.6%)
• Maori 0.8%  (-0.7%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• Mana 0.7% (-0.2%)
• NZ First 1.9% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

• National 71
• Labour 33
• Green 12
• ACT 2
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, Mana, ACT and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 71 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 74/124 – 12 more than minimum 62 needed to govern
• CL – Labour 33 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 46/124 -16 less than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• Key 54.5% (+1.5%)
• Goff 6.2% (-1.8%)

Leadership Approval

• Key – 76.2% (+1.3%) doing well vs 11.5% (-3.0%) doing poorly – net positive is 64.7% (+4.3%)
• Goff  – 26.8% (+0.7%) doing well vs 49.1% (-3.4%) doing poorly – net positive is -22.3% (+4.1%)

Feeling after three years

• 24% say worse off from three years ago
• 19% better off

Greens

• 55% say Greens should accept a coalition deal with National if Key offers one
• 30% say they should not
• 60% of Green voters says Greens should accept and only 27% say no
• 63% of National voters say Greens should accept and only 25% say no