Roy Morgan Poll late August 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 845, of whom 803 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5%

Dates: 15 August to 28 August 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

• National 52.0% (+1.5%)
• Labour 29.5% (-2.5%)
• Green 9.0% (+1.5%)
• ACT 2.0% (nc)
• Maori 1.5% (nc)
• United Future 0.5% (nc)
• NZ First 3.5% (-0.5%)
• Mana 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 65
• Labour 37
• Green 11
• ACT 3
• Maori 4
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 65 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 69/122 – 7 more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 37 + Greens 11 + Mana 1 = 49/122 – 13 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

• Right 59.0% (+2.0%)
• Wrong 27.5% (-1.5%)
• Can’t Say 13.5% (-0.5%)