Fairfax Research International poll September 2011

Polling Company: Research International

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Dates: 22 to 26 August 2011

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

• National 54.3% (-2.8%)
• Labour 28.1% (+2.4%)
• Green 10.1% (-0.9%)
• ACT 1.5% (+0.4%)
• Maori 1.3% (-0.3%)
• United Future 0.4% (+0.3%)
• Mana 0.2% (-0.4%)
• NZ First 2.3% (+0.1%)

Projected Seats

• National 68
• Labour 35
• Green 13
• ACT 2
• Maori 4
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 68 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 71/124 – 8 more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 35 + Greens 13 + Mana 1= 49/124 -14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• John Key 51.0% (-3.6%)
• Phil Goff 6.9% (-1.6%)
• Winston Peters 3.0% (+0.2%)