3 News Reid Research Poll August 2011

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: assumed 13 August to 17 August 2011

Client: 3 News

Report:

Party Support

• National 54.0% (-1.1%)
• Labour 28.8% (-1.1%)
• Green 9.3% (+0.2%)
• ACT 2.2% (+0.5%)
• Maori 1.5%  (+0.7%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• Mana 0.9% (+0.2%)
• NZ First 2.2% (nc)

Projected Seats

• National 67
• Labour 36
• Green 11
• ACT 3
• Maori 4
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, Mana, ACT and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 67 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 71/124 – 9 more than minimum 63 needed to govern
• CL – Labour 36 + Greens 11 + Mana 1 = 48/124 -14 less than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• Key 53% (+2.5%)
• Goff 8% (+1.1%)

Leadership Approval

• Key – 74.9% (+2.8%) doing well vs 14.5% (+0.6%) doing poorly – net positive is 60.4% (+2.2%)
• Goff  – 26.1% (+1.8%) doing well vs 52.5% (+2.7%) doing poorly – net positive is -26.4% (-0.9%)

Policy Preference

• 53% prefer a capital gains tax while 31% preferred partial asset sales