Roy Morgan Poll early August 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 921, of whom 843 have a party preference

Undecideds: 8.5%

Dates: 25 July to 7 August 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

• National 52.0% (+3.0%)
• Labour 31.5% (-2.0%)
• Green 7.5% (nc)
• ACT 2.0% (-1.0%)
• Maori 3.0% (+0.5%)
• United Future 0.5% (nc)
• NZ First 2.5% (-0.5%)
• Mana 0.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 64
• Labour 39
• Green 9
• ACT 2
• Maori 4
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 120

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 64 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 67/122 – 6 more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 39 + Greens 9 + Mana 1 = 49/122 – 12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

• Right 56.5% (+0.5%)
• Wrong 29.0% (-0.5%)
• Can’t Say 14.5% (nc)