Roy Morgan Poll early July 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 895, of whom 819 have a party preference

Undecideds: 8.5%

Dates: 27 June to 10 July 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

• National 49.0% (-5.0%)
• Labour 33.5% (+3.0%)
• Green 7.5% (+2.0%)
• ACT 3.0% (+0.5%)
• Maori 2.5% (-0.5%)
• United Future 0.5% (nc)
• NZ First 3.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 61
• Labour 42
• Green 9
• ACT 4
• Maori 4
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 61 + ACT 4 + United Future 1 = 66/122 – 4 more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 42 + Greens 9 + Mana 1 = 52/122 – 10 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

• Right 56.0% (+2.5%)
• Wrong 29.5% (-2.0%)
• Can’t Say 14.5% (-0.5%)