3 News Reid Research Poll July 2011

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: assumed 01 July to 07 July 2011

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 55.1% (+2.1%)
• Labour 29.9% (-2.9%)
• Green 9.1% (+2.6%)
• ACT 1.7% (-0.5%)
• Maori 0.8%  (-0.8%)
• United Future 0.0% (-0.2%)
• Mana 0.7% (+0.2%)
• NZ First 2.2% (-0.2%)

Projected Seats

• National 68
• Labour 37
• Green 11
• ACT 2
• Maori 4
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT  and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 68 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 70/124 – 7 more than minimum 63 needed to govern
• CL – Labour 37 + Greens 11 + Mana 1 = 49/124 -14 less than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• Key 50.5% (+2.3%)
• Clark 1.7% (-2.8%)
• Goff 6.9% (-0.7%)
• Peters 3.9% (-0.1%)

Leadership Approval

• Key – 72.1% (+3.5%) doing well vs 13.9% (-3.1%) doing poorly – net positive is 58.2% (+6.6%)
• Goff  – 24.3% (-3.4%) doing well vs 49.8% (+2.5%) doing poorly – net positive is -25.5% (-5.9%)

Leadership Characteristics – Positive

• capable leader – Key by 48% (-3%)
• good in a crisis – Key by 37% (-5%)
• sound judgement – Key by 30% (-6%)
• in touch with Maori – Goff by 3% (+6%)

Leadership Characteristics – Negative

• more style than substance – Key by 18% (-1%)
• talk down to people – Goff by 7% (-1%)
• narrow minded – Goff by 10% (-4%)
• inflexible – Goff by 10% (nc)

Rugby World Cup Predicted Winner

• NZ 65%
• Australia 9%
• South Africa 7%
• England 3%
• France 1%
• Don’t Care 5%
• Don’t Know 10%

Christchurch Earthquake Recovery

• Government done a good job – 72% agree, 21% disagree
• Gerry Brownlee done a good job – 57% agree, 28% disagree