Roy Morgan Poll late May 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 942, of whom 853 have a party preference

Dates: 16 May to 29 May 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

• National 49.0% (-4.0%)
• Labour 38.0% (+8.0%)
• Green 6.5% (-3.5%)
• ACT 1.5% (-0.5%)
• Maori 2.5% (+0.5)
• United Future 0.5% (nc)
• NZ First 2.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 61
• Labour 45
• Green 8
• ACT 2
• Maori 4
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 61 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 64/122 – 2 more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 45 + Greens 8 + Mana 1 = 54/122 – 8 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

• Right 55.0% (-1.5%)
• Wrong 28.0% (-2.0%)
• Can’t Say 17.0% (+3.5%)