3 News Reid Research Poll May 2011

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 20 May to 26 May 2011

Client: 3 News

Report:

Party Support

• National 53.0% (-4.5%)
• Labour 32.8% (+5.7%)
• Green 6.5% (-1.2%)
• ACT 2.2% (+0.5%)
• Maori 1.6%  (-0.9%)
• United Future 0.2%
• Mana 0.5%
• NZ First 2.4% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

• National 65
• Labour 41
• Green 8
• ACT 3
• Maori 4
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT  and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 65 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 69/123 – 7 more than minimum 63 needed to govern
• CL – Labour 41 + Greens 8 + Mana 1 = 50/123 -12 less than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• Key 48.2% (-4.2%)
• Clark 4.5% (+2.0%)
• Goff 7.6% (+0.8%)
• Peters 4.0% (-0.4%)

Leadership Approval

• Key – 68.6% (-7.2%) doing well vs 17.0% (+4.1%) doing poorly – net positive is 51.6% (-11.3%)
• Goff  – 27.7% (+1.0%) doing well vs 47.3% (-2.0%) doing poorly – net positive is -19.6% (-3.0%)

Leadership Characteristics – Positive

• honest – Key by 22% (-3%)
• down to earth – Key by 15% (-3%)
• understands econ problems – Key by 19% (-6%)
• has personality – Key by 54% (+4%)
• in touch with Maori – Key by 3% (-3%)

Leadership Characteristics – Negative

• inexperienced – Key by 3% (+1%)
• out of touch – Key by 8% (+2%)

KiwiSaver

• 43% support changes to KiwiSaver
• 42% against KiwiSaver change
• 87% of people in KiwiSaver will remain, but 13% want to exit