TV3 Poll early October 2010

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 863 have a party preference, (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 27 September to 06 October 2010

Client: TV3

Report:

Party Support

• National 53.8% (-0.7%)
• Labour 32.6% (+2.0%)
• Green 7.6% (-0.9%)
• ACT 0.9% (-1.3%)
• Maori 2.4%  (+0.9%)
• United Future 0.3% (+0.1%)
• Progressive 0.1% (+0.1%)
• NZ First 1.2% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

• National 67
• Labour 40
• Green 9
• ACT 1
• Maori 5
• United Future 1
• Progressive 0
• NZ First 0
• Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT  and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 67 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 69/123 – 7 more than minimum 63 needed to govern
• CL – Labour 40 + Greens 9 = 49/124 -13 less than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• Key 50.6% (+1.9%)
• Clark 3.7% (+1.4%)
• Goff 8.8% (+1.4%)
• Peters 3.4% (-0.3%)

Leadership Approval

• Key – 75.9% (+6.0%) doing well vs 11.9% (-4.0%) doing poorly – net positive is 64.0% (+10.0%%)
• Goff  – 34.2% (+3.3%) doing well vs 41.9% (-2.0%) doing poorly – net positive is -7.7% (+5.3%)

Leadership Characteristics – Positive

• honest – Key by 18% (-2%)
• down to earth – Key by 13% (+1%)
• understands econ problems – Key by 26% (+3%)
• has personality – Key by 46% (nc)
• in touch with Maori – Key by 3% (-2%)

Leadership Characteristics – Negative

• inexperienced – Key by 3% (-10%)
• out of touch – Key by 0% (-4%)

• 56% Brown
• 34% Banks

• 23% say he should stay as ACT leader
• 35% say he should step down
• 36% say he should resign from Parliament

Act Leadership

• 30% want Heather Roy (of those who did not say Hide should stay)
• 17% Roger Douglas
• 11% John Boscawen
• 42% None