TV3 poll June 2010

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 880 have a party preference, (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 8 June to 15 June 2010

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

• National 55.3% (+3.2%)
• Labour 30.5% (-3.3%)
• Green 7.5% (-0.7%)
• ACT 1.6% (nc)
• Maori 1.9%  (nc)
• United Future 0.1% (-0.4%)
• Progressive 0.0% (-0.1%)
• NZ First 1.8% (+0.3%)

Projected Seats

• National 69
• Labour 38
• Green 9
• ACT 2
• Maori 5
• United Future 1
• Progressive 0
• NZ First 0
• Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 69 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 72/124 – 9 more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 38 + Greens 9 = 47/124 -16 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• Key 49.6% (+0.4%)
• Clark 4.9% (+1.2%)
• Goff 5.1% (-2.4%)
• Peters ?

Leadership Approval

• Key – 69.0% (+0.2%) doing well vs 15.9% (-0.5%) doing poorly – net positive is 53.1% (+0.7%)
• Goff  – 27.2% (-6.9%) doing well vs 45.4% (+3.9%) doing poorly – net positive is -18.2% (-10.8%)

Leadership Characteristics – Positive

• honest – Key by 20% (-6%)
• down to earth – Key by 12% (-5%)
• understands econ problems – Key by 23% (-2%)
• has personality – Key by 46% (+4%)
• in touch with Maori – Key by 5% (-9%)

Leadership Characteristics – Negative

• inexperienced – Key by 13% (-2%)
• out of touch – Key by 4% (+1%)