Roy Morgan Poll late January 2010

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,758 (2.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 18 January to 31 January 2010

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

• National 52.0% (-1.0%)
• Labour 32.0% (+2.0%)
• Green 6.0% (-2.0%)
• ACT 2.0% (nc)
• Maori 3.0% (+0.5%)
• United Future 0.5% (nc)
• Progressive 0.5% (nc)
• NZ First 3.5% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

• National 65
• Labour 40
• Green 17
• ACT 2
• Maori 5
• United Future 1
• Progressive 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 65 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 68/121 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 40 + Progressive 1 + Greens 7 = 48/121 – 13 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

• Right 71.0% (+2.5%)
• Wrong 20.0% (-1.0%)
• Can’t Say 9.0% (-1.5%)