Roy Morgan Poll early January 2010

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,758 (2.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 04 January to 17 January 2010

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

• National 53.0% (-1.0%)
• Labour 30.0% (+2.5%)
• Green 8.0% (-1.5%)
• ACT 2.0% (+0.5%)
• Maori 2.5% (+1.0%)
• United Future 0.5% (nc)
• Progressive 0.5% (+0.5%)
• NZ First 2.5% (-1.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 66
• Labour 37
• Green 10
• ACT 2
• Maori 5
• United Future 1
• Progressive 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 66 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 69/122 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 37 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 = 48/122 – 14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

• Right 68.5% (+6.0%)
• Wrong 21.0% (-4.0%)
• Can’t Say 10.5% (-2.0%)