TV3 Poll December 2009

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 893 have a party preference, (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 02 December to 08 December 2009

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

• National 55.2% (-4.7%)
• Labour 30.8% (+3.6%)
• Green 7.8% (+0.9%)
• ACT 1.8% (+0.1%)
• Maori 1.7%  (-0.7%)
• United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
• Progressive 0.1% (-0.2%)
• NZ First 1.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 68
• Labour 38
• Green 10
• ACT 2
• Maori 5
• United Future 1
• Progressive 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 125

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 68 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 71/125 – 8 more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 38 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 = 49/124 -14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• Key 49.9% (-5.9%)
• Clark 6.1% (-2.1%)
• Goff 8.0% (+3.3%)
• Peters 2.1% (-0.9%

Leadership Approval

• Key – 72.9% (-9.4%) doing well vs 12.3% (+5.1%) doing poorly – net positive is 60.6% (-14.5%)
• Goff  – 32.2% (-2.0%) doing well vs 40.6% (+2.7%) doing poorly – net positive is -8.4% (-4.7%)

Leadership Characteristics – Positive

• capable leader – Key by 41% (+1%)
• good in a crisis – Key by 29% (nc)
• sound judgement – Key by 23% (-5%)
• in touch with Maori – Key by 14% (+8%)

Leadership Characteristics – Negative

• more style than substance – Key by 12% (+4%)
• talk down to people – Goff by 8% (+1%)
• narrow minded – Goff by 7% (-3%)
• inflexible – Goff by 2% (-7%)