Roy Morgan late November 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 849 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 16 November to 29 November 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

• National 53.5% (+2.0%)
• Labour 30.5% (-2.5%)
• Green 7.0% (+0.5%)
• ACT 1.5% (-1.0%)
• Maori 3.5% (+1.5%)
• United Future 0.0% (-1.0%)
• Progressive 0.0% (nc)
• NZ First 2.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

• National 67
• Labour 38
• Green 9
• ACT 2
• Maori 5
• United Future 1
• Progressive 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 67 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 70/123 – 8 more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 38 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 = 48/123 – 14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

• Right 66.0% (+1.5%)
• Wrong 22.0% (-0.5%)
• Can’t Say 12.0% (-1.0%)