Roy Morgan early November 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 951 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 19 October to 01 November 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

• National 55.5% (+2.5%)
• Labour 29.0% (-1.0%)
• Green 7.5% (nc)
• ACT 1.0% (-1.5%)
• Maori 3.5% (+0.5%)
• United Future 0.5% (nc)
• Progressive 0.5% (nc)
• NZ First 1.5% (-1.0%)

Projected Seats

• National 68
• Labour 36
• Green 9
• ACT 1
• Maori 5
• United Future 1
• Progressive 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 68 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 70/121 – 9 more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 36 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 = 46/121 – 15 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

• Right 66.5% (-1.0%)
• Wrong 20.5% (-1.0%)
• Can’t Say 13.0% (+2.0%)