Roy Morgan December 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 858 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 30 November to 13 December 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

• National 54.0% (+0.5%)
• Labour 27.5% (-3.0%)
• Green 9.5% (+2.5%)
• ACT 1.5% (nc)
• Maori 1.5% (-2.0%)
• United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
• Progressive 0.0% (nc)
• NZ First 4.0% (+1.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 68
• Labour 35
• Green 12
• ACT 2
• Maori 5
• United Future 1
• Progressive 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 68 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 71/124 – 8 more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 35 + Progressive 1 + Greens 12 = 48/124 – 15 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

• Right 62.5% (-3.5%)
• Wrong 25.0% (+3.0%)
• Can’t Say 12.5% (+0.5%)