Roy Morgan Poll mid October 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 951 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 05 October to 18 October 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

• National 53.0% (-4.5%)
• Labour 30.0% (+2.0%)
• Green 7.5% (+1.0%)
• ACT 2.5% (+1.0%)
• Maori 3.0% (+0.5%)
• United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
• Progressive 0.5% (+0.5%)
• NZ First 2.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 65
• Labour 37
• Green 9
• ACT 3
• Maori 5
• United Future 1
• Progressive 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 65 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 69/121 – 8 more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 37 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 = 47/121 – 14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

• Right 67.5% (-4.5%)
• Wrong 21.5% (+5.0%)
• Can’t Say 11.0% (-0.5%)