Roy Morgan Poll early October 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 854 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 21 September to 04 October 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

• National 57.5% (+6.0%)
• Labour 28.0% (-5.5%)
• Green 6.5% (-1.0%)
• ACT 1.5% (-0.5%)
• Maori 2.5% (nc)
• United Future 1.0% (+1.0%)
• Progressive 0.0% (-0.5%)
• NZ First 2.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 71
• Labour 35
• Green 8
• ACT 2
• Maori 5
• United Future 1
• Progressive 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 71 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 74/123 – 12 more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 35 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 = 44/123 – 18 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

• Right 72.0% (+4.5%)
• Wrong 16.5% (-8.0%)
• Can’t Say 11.5% (+3.5%)