One News Colmar Brunton Poll September 2009
October 1, 2009
Polling Company: Colmar Brunton
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 1,000 adults, of whom 837 are decided
Dates: 19 September to 24 September 2009
Client: One News
Report:
Party Support
- National 54.0% (-2.0%)
- Labour 33.0% (+2.0%)
- Green 4.3% (-2.7%)
- ACT 3.2% (+2.2%)
- Maori 2.7% (-0.4%)
- United Future 0.2% (+0.1%)
- Progressive 0.4% (-0.1%)
- NZ First 1.7% (+0.1%)
Projected Seats
- National 70
- Labour 42
- Green 0
- ACT 4
- Maori 5
- United Future 1
- Progressive 1
- NZ First 0
- Total 123
This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 70 + ACT 4 + United Future 1 = 75/123 – 13 more than minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 42 + Progressive 1 + Greens 0 = 43/123 -19 less than minimum needed to govern
The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.
Economic Outlook
- 70% economy over next 12 months will be better (+10.0%)
- 16% same (-2.0%)
- 13% worse (-9.0%)
Preferred PM
- John Key 50% (-1.0%)
- Phil Goff 9% (+2%)
- Helen Clark 4% (+1%)