Roy Morgan Poll early September 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 854 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 31 August to 13 September 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

• National 51.5% (-5.0%)
• Labour 33.5% (+4.0%)
• Green 7.5% (-0.5%)
• ACT 2.0% (+0.5%)
• Maori 2.5% (+1.0%)
• United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
• Progressive 0.5% (nc)
• NZ First 2.5% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

• National 64
• Labour 41
• Green 9
• ACT 2
• Maori 5
• United Future 1
• Progressive 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 64 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 67/123 – 5 more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 41 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 = 51/123 -11 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

• Right 67.5% (+2.0%)
• Wrong 24.5% (+2.5%)
• Can’t Say 8.0% (-4.5%)