Roy Morgan late August 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 860 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 17 August to 30 August 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

• National 56.5% (+3.0%)
• Labour 29.5% (-3.0%)
• Green 8.0% (-0.5%)
• ACT 1.5% (+0.5%)
• Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
• United Future 0.5% (nc)
• Progressive 0.5% (+0.5%)
• NZ First 1.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 68
• Labour 36
• Green 10
• ACT 2
• Maori 5
• United Future 1
• Progressive 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 68 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 71/123 – 9 more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 36 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 = 47/123 -15 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

• Right 65.5% (-1.0%)
• Wrong 22.0% (+0.5%)
• Can’t Say 12.5% (+0.5%)