TV3 Poll August 2009

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: estimated 08 April to 13 April 2009

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

• National 58.1% (+2.1%)
• Labour 29.2% (-0.8%)
• Green 7.5% (+1.4%)
• ACT 1.4% (-0.7%)
• Maori 1.2% (-1.7%)
• United Future 0.2% (+0.1%)
• Progressive 0.0% (-0.3%)
• NZ First 1.0% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

• National 72
• Labour 36
• Green 9
• ACT 2
• Maori 5
• United Future 1
• Progressive 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 126

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 72 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 75/126 – 11 more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 36 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 = 46/126 -18 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• Key 51.5% (+0.4%)
• Clark 8.0% (-3.5%)
• Goff 6.5% (-2.6%)