Roy Morgan mid August 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 816 (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 3 August to 16 August 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

• National 53.5% (nc)
• Labour 32.5% (-1.5%)
• Green 8.5% (+1.5%)
• ACT 1.0% (-1.5%)
• Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
• United Future 0.5% (nc)
• Progressive 0.0% (nc)
• NZ First 2.0% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

• National 66
• Labour 40
• Green 10
• ACT 1
• Maori 5
• United Future 1
• Progressive 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 66 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 68/124 – 5 more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 40 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 = 51/124 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

• Right 66.5% (+0.5%)
• Wrong 21.5% (+3.0%)
• Can’t Say 12.0% (-3.5%)