Roy Morgan Poll mid July 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 871 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 6 July to 19 July 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

• National 52.0% (-2.0%)
• Labour 30.0% (-1.5%)
• Green 10.0% (+2.0%)
• ACT 1.0% (nc)
• Maori 3.5% (+0.5%)
• United Future 0.5% (nc)
• Progressive 0.0% (-0.5%)
• NZ First 2.0% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

• National 65
• Labour 37
• Green 12
• ACT 1
• Maori 5
• United Future 1
• Progressive 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/122 – 5 more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 37 + Progressive 1 + Greens 12 = 50/122 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

• Right 66.5% (+3.5%)
• Wrong 20.5% (-2.5%)
• Can’t Say 13.0% (-1.0%)