TV3 Poll April 2009

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, 947 decided (3.2% and 3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 14 April to 21 April 2009

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

• National 56.0% (-4.0%)
• Labour 30.0% (+3.0%)
• Green 6.1% (-0.9%)
• ACT 2.1% (+0.9%)
• Maori 2.9% (+0.8%)
• United Future 0.1% (-0.1%)
• Progressive 0.3% (+0.3%)
• NZ First 1.3% (-0.2%)

Projected Seats

• National 69
• Labour 37
• Green 7
• ACT 3
• Maori 5
• United Future 1
• Progressive 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 69 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 73/123 – 11 more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 37 + Progressive 1 + Greens 7 = 45/123 -17 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.Preferred PM

• Key 51.1% (-0.9%)
• Clark 11.5% (-2.3%)
• Goff 9.1% (+5.4%)

Leadership Approval

• Key – 80.2% (+1.2%) doing well vs 7.3% (+1.3%) doing poorly – net positive is 72.9% (-0.1%)
• Goff  – 42.2% (-0.8%) doing well vs 28.3% (+1.3%) doing poorly – net positive is 13.9% (-2.1%)

Leadership Characteristics

• capable leader – Key by 32%
• good in a crisis – Key by 24%
• sound judgement – Key by 20%
• honest – Key by 13%
• down to earth – Key by 9%
• understands economic problems – Key by 22%
• has a lot of personality – Key by 27%
• in touch with Maori – Key by 2%

• more style than substance – Key by 10%
• talk down to people – Goff by 11%
• narrow minded – Goff by 12%
• inflexible – Goff by 11%
• inexperienced – Key by 22%
• out of touch  – Goff by 3%